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The 2026 FIFA World Cup in USA, Canada and Mexico has entered its most intense knockout stage. With both the Netherlands and Germany, two traditional powerhouses, eliminated, the championship landscape has shifted dramatically. According to the latest predictions from multiple betting companies and data analysis firms, Spain's win probability has risen to 22.47%, making them the biggest favorites of this tournament.

Spain's performance throughout this World Cup has been exceptional. In the group stage, they emerged with a perfect record, conceding only one goal in three matches. In the Round of 16, facing a solid opponent, Spain once again proved their dominance through outstanding possession play and precise passing networks. Especially the midfield core Correa, whose key passes and defensive interceptions have become the hub of the team's attack-defense transitions.

Data analysis shows that Spain averaged 68.3% possession with a pass completion rate of 92.1 percent, both figures leading all participating teams. More impressively, their shot conversion rate in the knockout stage reached 23.5 percent, far above the average of other teams. This efficient attacking output is precisely the key factor behind their rising championship probability.

The elimination of the Netherlands and Germany objectively cleared Spain's biggest competitors. The Netherlands unexpectedly fell in the penalty shootout in the Round of 16, while Germany was suppressed by an opponent's technical approach in the quarter-finals. The early departure of these two traditional powerhouses has allowed Spain to emerge as the strongest contender.

However, Spain faces severe challenges ahead. In the semi-final, they will face Belgium, a team with world-class star power. The combination of De Bruyne in midfield and Lukaku up front poses a huge threat to Spain's defense. Head-to-head records show that over the past five official matches, the two teams have recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss for Spain, giving them only a slight edge.

Tactically, Spain's manager needs to find balance between possession play and counter-attacking. Facing Belgium's quick transition attacks, Spain's midfield must maintain higher defensive alertness. Meanwhile, the speed advantage on the wings should be fully utilized, combining wing play with central attacks to tear open Belgium's defense.

If Spain advances to the final, they would face either France or Morocco. France possesses Mbappe, a world-class forward, while Morocco has reached the semi-finals with tenacious defense and sharp counter-attacks. Regardless of the opponent, Spain must deliver their best performance in the semi-final.

From the current World Cup trajectory, this tournament's championship race is full of suspense. But undeniably, Spain has demonstrated sufficient strength and consistency. They are fully qualified to be called the biggest favorite of this World Cup. Let us wait and see whether this technical team can ultimately lift the World Cup trophy.